The NHS is bracing yet again for another tough winter, with early flu outbreaks, rising demand in A&E, and ongoing industrial action.
Every year, colder months bring a surge in seasonal illnesses and hospital admissions, but this winter is expected to be particularly challenging. Health leaders have already warned of a “long, hard winter” ahead, as flu cases are arriving earlier than usual and are predicted to be the worst in a decade.
At the same time, the NHS is working to reduce waiting lists (now 230,000 lower than July last year), while managing record levels of ambulance callouts and emergency attendances.
To prepare, NHS England has stress-tested winter plans across regions, ensuring hospitals and Integrated Care Boards have strategies in place for different demand scenarios.
These include expanding urgent care services, strengthening infection control measures, and accelerating vaccination programmes for flu and COVID-19.
Supply chains are also being reinforced to guarantee essential equipment and medicines remain available during peak demand.
Meanwhile, public campaigns are encouraging people to make informed choices about where to seek care, from self-care at home to NHS 111, in order to ease pressure on frontline staff.
Stress tests
In September, the Health Service started preparing by running stress test exercises. Local NHS leaders tested the robustness of their winter plans by participating in scenario exercises such as staff shortages, rapid increase in demand, and multiple virus outbreaks.
Teams also identified patients who would be the most vulnerable to winter viruses and hospital admission, so they could be provided with targeted care.
This year will see a different approach, with more power for NHS leaders on-the-ground to deliver bespoke plans for their local population.
The health service is also working closely with local authority and social care colleagues, so that discharge capacity can surge at times of peak demand.
Sir Jim Mackey, NHS chief executive, said: “Despite record demand this year NHS teams have worked hard to improve waiting times, with last month’s Category 2 ambulance response times the fastest for four years – but we know the coming colder months will be much more challenging.
“The NHS has done more preparation to be ready for the winter months than ever before, because we know the last few winters have been particularly tough for patients and staff, and we are determined for this year to be better”.
Health and social care secretary Wes Streeting said: “Winter is always tough for the NHS, but this year we’re ramping up preparations and doing more to protect the country. From ‘war game’ exercises to extra checks for the most vulnerable, we’re making sure the health service is ready for whatever comes its way.
“But the public has a crucial role too. The single best way you can protect yourself, your family, and the NHS is by getting vaccinated.
It takes pressure off hardworking staff and helps ensure care is there for patients when they need it most.
“By preparing together – government, NHS staff and the public – we can give the health service the best chance to weather the winter ahead”.
Healthy lifestyles
In November, the government launched a new campaign supported by Sport England that aims to help parents discover simple ways to build movement into daily life during the winter months.
According to research, almost three in five (57 per cent) parents say their children’s physical activity levels are likely to suffer a seasonal dip during autumn and winter, with cold or wet weather (60 per cent) and darker evenings
(41 per cent) highlighted as the key barriers.
NHS guidance recommends that children get at least 60 minutes of physical activity each day – including 30 minutes outside of school hours. Yet the new survey reveals that 81 per cent of parents underestimate how much physical activity children need. Already, more than half of children in England aren’t getting the recommended amount of movement and, worryingly, the research shows this will increase during the colder months.
Supported by Joe Wicks, the ‘Let’s Move!’ campaign makes staying active easy and affordable, offering ideas from kitchen discos to local activities and playground fun. It encourages families to move together – 80 per cent of parents believe their habits influence their child’s activity levels – and highlights how everyday routines can support healthy, active lifestyles. Regular movement boosts mood, focus, and family connections, with 78 per cent of parents agreeing that their child is happier after being active, has more energy (71 per cent) and has better concentration (68 per cent).
While just over half (52 per cent) of parents say their children really enjoy traditional forms of sport, others face barriers such as low confidence (31 per cent) or a dislike of competitiveness (30 per cent). However, 94 per cent of parents say their children enjoy physical play as a form of movement – with top activities including visiting the playground (56 per cent), riding a bike (46 per cent), dancing (44 per cent) and playing tag or chase (43 per cent).
‘Let’s Move!’ aims to support different ways for children to enjoy being active – from sport to play and everyday movement. The campaign features real families from local areas having fun getting active together in ways which suit them, such as dancing or playing in the playground.
Winter vaccinations began in October. Regional teams made it as easy as possible for people to receive their vaccines, for example, by hosting mobile vaccination buses to deliver vaccines closer to home, running family drop-in sessions in the community, and for the first time ever delivering flu vaccines to two- and three-year-olds in some community pharmacies.
Dr Amanda Doyle, national director for primary care and community services at NHS England, said: “It’s concerning to hear flu and COVID-19 cases are already creeping up ahead of winter – but vaccinations remain our best defence against these viruses and can be lifesaving. I urge everyone eligible to come forward for their jabs as soon as they can, with easy to book appointments or drop-in sessions now available closer to home.
“Teams across the country are working hard to make it as easy as possible to get vaccinated at your local GP, pharmacy, school or other community clinic, and for the first time ever parents will be able to get flu vaccines for their two- and three-year-olds at their high-street pharmacy to help busy families protect their children in a way that works for them.
“Get vaccinated today to protect yourself and others around you, it might keep you out of hospital this winter”.
Capacity
In Scotland, health secretary Neil Gray has confirmed £20 million to boost social care capacity.
Speaking to parliament, he shared updates on winter preparations for the NHS and urged people to get the flu vaccine.
The money will be targeted at initiatives by health boards to increase social care capacity and provide extra support at the front door of A&Es. This will reduce admissions and help to relieve pressure on acute services.
Gray also warned of an expected early and difficult flu season and urged everyone eligible to get their vaccination, particularly children and young people who can transmit the virus to vulnerable family members and friends.
To further help with winter pressures, the Scottish Ambulance Service (SAS) will recruit more than 290 new frontline A&E staff this year, including newly qualified paramedics and ambulance care assistants.
NHS 24 has also implemented a new call centre system backed by £5 million of investment. Over 90 per cent of callers triaged by NHS 24 as needing an ambulance response now have their call information transferred
and referred digitally, removing repetitive stages of the call process and speeding up
the process.
Health boards have been directed to undertake a new approach, working together to plan digital care and business systems, and make best use of available capacity for orthopaedic elective services.
Gray said: “We know pressure on the system exacerbates over winter and I am determined to ensure that pressure is relieved as much as possible. We have been preparing plans for this winter season throughout the past year with NHS boards and local authorities.
“Our investment of £20 million will be crucial in our efforts to bolster social care capacity, reduce unnecessary hospital admissions and ensure people receive the right care in the most appropriate setting.
“A key part of our winter response is prevention and our national flu vaccination programme is well underway. Vaccination is one of the best ways to protect our own health and those around us – with flu cases rising and initial evidence suggesting this may be an early and potentially difficult flu season, I urge all those who are eligible to get vaccinated.”
“We have significantly increased Scottish Ambulance Service staffing and we are investing in capacity in our NHS 24 call centres so that people are getting the right support quickly and when they need it.
“Our dedicated health and social care staff are the cornerstone of our winter response every year – they will continue to work tirelessly in the coming months to provide excellent care, and I thank them for their outstanding efforts.”
