The Institute for Fiscal Studies has claimed that NHS waiting lists could reach 15 million or higher in the wake of the pandemic.
Looking at a number of scenarios, the IFS has said that returning the waiting list to pre-pandemic levels by 2025 could cost the NHS an additional £2 billion a year, in a likely best case scenario, but this would place a heavy demand on Chancellor Rishi Sunak as he draws up plans for government expenditure in this autumn’s Spending Review.
Health Secretary Sajid Javid warned in July that waiting lists could more than double from the current 5.3 million to hit 13 million by the end of the year, as many patients who have stayed away from hospitals during the pandemic come forward for treatment. The independent economic think tank said modelling suggested the backlog could rise beyond that level unless NHS capacity is boosted significantly above 2019 levels in what will be ‘a major and pressing challenge’ for Javid and new NHS England chief executive Amanda Pritchard.
The waiting list is already the longest it has been since the current definition was introduced in 2007, at 5.3 million, and more than twice the January 2009 figure of 2.3 million, when it was at its shortest.
The report, which analysed four scenarios of varying seriousness for the waiting list, said: “Sir Simon Stevens, the outgoing NHS England chief executive, has suggested that with the right resources the backlog could be cleared over the next two-and-a-half to three years. Our analysis shows that achieving this would require the NHS to find effective ways to boost its capacity. If that cannot be done, clearing the backlog will take even longer.”
Layla McCay, director of policy at the NHS Confederation, said: “The possibility of backlogs stretching to 13 million and beyond is a nightmare scenario, and sadly, despite the best efforts of NHS organisations, it’s all too possible it could become a reality. However, by acting swiftly and decisively to invest in the NHS, both in capacity and in workforce, the government can prevent this from happening.
“The upcoming spending review is a real opportunity to ensure the NHS is fully funded to meet pandemic-associated costs. In the more immediate term, however, the government must allocate enough funding to continue vital programmes such as discharge to assess.
“In the short term, alongside other organisations, we have written to Sajid Javid and Rishi Sunak, calling for £600 million for discharge to assess for the second half of the year, so that people who are medically fit can easily and safely leave hospital, reducing the risk they will have to stay longer and delay treatment for others.”
