More than 4.5 million people missed out on hospital treatment in England last year due to the disruption to the NHS caused by coronavirus.
Health Foundation analysis reveals that the number of patients having planned surgery, such as a joint replacement, dropped from 16.62 million in 2019 to just under 12 million last year – a drop of 4.64 million people.
The fall is mainly being attributed to hospitals suspending many of their normal services as they focused on the influx of people severely ill with coronavirus, which resulted in operating theatres being turned into makeshift intensive care units and surgical staff being repurposed to fight the pandemic.
Alongside this, GPs referred six million fewer people to have diagnostic tests and treatment in hospital as a result of the disruption to care, patients’ reluctance go to hospital in case they caught coronavirus and a desire not to add to the pressure on the overstretched NHS.
The Health Foundation estimates that this has created millions of ‘missing patients’ who could send the overall NHS waiting list soaring from its already record high 4.6 million people to 9.7 million by 2024 if three-quarters of those people belatedly seek treatment now that the pandemic is easing.
Tim Gardner, a senior policy fellow at the Health Foundation, said: “The waiting list is already at the highest level it’s been since comparable records began in 2007, and if it did rise from 4.6 million now to 9.7 million by March 2024 as we estimate, that’s more than double the waiting list now. These ‘missing millions’ have the potential to become problematic for the government. So this – addressing the backlog of care and getting waiting times back on track – has got to be seen as the defining challenge between now and the next general election.
“However, doing that will take years. I think we are looking at well beyond the next election before patients needing care can access the care that they need within the 18-week commitment in the NHS constitution. NHS staff are exhausted, so I think progress towards tackling the backlog and getting things back on track will be slow.”
