The University of Manchester has reported that the majority of NHS regions experienced a steady rise in GP turnover between 2007 and 2019.

During the period studied, the proportion of practices with high turnover (10 per cent to 40 per cent within a year) almost doubled from 14 per cent in 2009, to 27 per cent in 2019. However, the proportion of practices with very high turnover (above 40 per cent) remained stable at around eight per cent.

Practices in the most deprived areas had higher turnover rates compared to practices in the least deprived areas. The university calculated turnover by rates and region using NHS data from all English general practices which numbered 8,085 in 2007 and 6,598 in 2019.

According to the study: the number of practices with persistent high turnover (at least three consecutive years) increased from 2.7 per cent in 2007 to 6.3 per cent in 2017; the 75th percentile for turnover in 2009 was 11 per cent, increasing to 18 per cent in 2014, and coming back down to 14 per cent in 2019; there was high regional variability in mean turnover rates in 2007 and in their changes over time; and practices in the most deprived areas (quintile) had turnover rates that were up to 10 per cent higher compared to practices in the least deprived areas, even when accounting for differences across NHS regions.

Evan Kontopantelis from The University of Manchester said: “We already know the GP workforce in England is going through a major crisis. Rates of early retirement are increasing, as are intentions to reduce hours of working or leave their practice in the near future.

“Though in 2015, the government promised 5,000 more doctors in primary care by 2020, the number of full-time equivalent GPs per 1,000 patients continues to decline. Quantifying GP turnover and understanding how it is distributed is fundamental to addressing challenges for the national health service, and for ensuring that quality and continuity of care are available to patients.

“We reveal worrying trends in GP turnover. High levels may affect the ability to deliver primary care services; and undermine continuity of care which in turn may affect the quality of patient care. And healthcare received from multiple GPs can lead to conflicting therapeutic treatments and fragmented care. Differential turnover across practices and regions could also lead to a maldistribution of GPs, exacerbating retention problems and health inequalities.”