The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has published its first ever Health Security Risk Assessment (HSRA), which sets out the most significant health security risks facing the UK over the next five years.

The report complements the Cabinet Office’s existing National Risk Register by offering a more detailed view of health-related threats. It provides a framework to understand the impact of infectious diseases, environmental hazards and other acute health emergencies.

Some of the scenarios in the report include a novel coronavirus pandemic, declining childhood immunisation coverage and extreme heat.

One example shows a new strain of influenza arriving in the UK, which in multiple waves over the course of two years leads two symptomatic infections in over half of the UK population, 4 per cent of whom require hospital care.

Another example simulates a series of warmer-than-expected summers in continental Europe resulting in the Aedes albopictus mosquito becoming established in London and south coast ports, leading to the first locally acquired cases of Dengue in the UK.

For each risk, a ‘reasonable worst-case scenario’ is created. All of the scenarios presented are assessed for likelihood and potential impact on healthcare, the economy and wider society. A detailed response and mitigation plan is also provided for each.

Professor Steven Riley, Chief Data Officer at the UK Health Security Agency said: "As we continue to experience risks from a wide range of complex health security threats which disproportionately impact more vulnerable groups in our society, it is vital we continue to enhance our preparedness measures and resilience planning.

"This report reflects the breadth of UKHSA’s remit in responding to these threats but is also designed to support our partners in government, health services and other public and private services, who have collaborated extensively on this report to ensure its relevance and rigour.

"While high potential impact and assessed likelihood means that respiratory infections with pandemic potential remain our greatest threat, the health hazards in this edition of this report span 7 themes: bloodborne and sexually transmitted, contact, gastrointestinal, respiratory, vector-borne, environmental and combined events."