The Academy of Medical Sciences has warned that a potential surge in respiratory viruses could cause widespread ill health and put pressure on the NHS.
New modelling carried out for their new report suggests this winter influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Virus hospital admissions and deaths could be two times that of a ‘normal’ year and could coincide with an increase of coronavirus infections, and their associated long-term consequences.
As well as causing extra pressure, the academy says that dealing with the current third wave, as well as multiple subsequent outbreaks, between summer 2021 and spring 2022, means the NHS cannot catch up with the backlog of routine care.
The NHS is already under pressure, and so is likely to be less able to cope with extra winter health challenges. Before the pandemic, winter bed occupancy in the NHS regularly exceeded 95 per cent. This year the NHS will also be operating with a reduced number of beds because of infection control measures. The report also highlights that the NHS is reporting a shortage of nearly 84,000 staff, and a shortage of 2,500 GPs. Staff fatigue and burnout will also be a challenge.
The Academy of Medical Sciences has called for: an expansion to Covid-19 testing to include influenza and RSV; increasing the speed and uptake of Covid-19 vaccination now, alongside preparations for delivering booster vaccines if needed; financial - and other - support to be strengthened urgently to make it easier for all people to self-isolate when they are infected; and, lastly, super charging the NHS by bringing in new staff, increasing bed numbers and capacity in primary care, improving infection control, ensuring equitable access to long Covid clinics, improving access to mental health services, reducing the backlog of routine care and increasing testing capacity for flu and Covid-19.
Professor Sir Stephen Holgate, chair of the Expert Advisory Group, said: “Despite a highly successful Covid-19 vaccine campaign, the pandemic is not over yet. The message from our report is clear – Covid-19 is still with us and remains a threat to our health both directly and indirectly. All parts of society need to take action to head off the serious health risks we are facing now, and in the future.”
