Two news studies have assessed the impact of pandemic-related changes in alcohol consumption.
According to the studies from the University of Sheffield and Institute of Alcohol Studies/HealthLumen, changes in alcohol consumption during the pandemic are likely to lead to thousands of additional cases of disease, premature deaths and hospital admissions, costing the NHS billions.
During the pandemic, lighter drinkers consumed less alcohol, but heavy drinkers consumed more.
The research by the University of Sheffield, which was commissioned by the NHS, looked into how alcohol-related hospitalisations and deaths are likely to increase over a longer period of 20 years. The worst-case scenario established by the research found that there will be 972,382 additional hospital admissions and 25,192 additional deaths, costing £5.2 billion.
The research by the Institute of Alcohol Studies and non-communicable disease modelling specialists HealthLumen, which was funded by NIHR, examined additional alcohol-related diseases, deaths, and NHS costs. The research projected that if drinking does not to return to pre-pandemic patterns, there will be 147,892 additional cases of nine alcohol-related diseases – such as liver cirrhosis and breast cancer – and 9,914 additional premature deaths by 2035, costing the NHS £1.2 billion.
Colin Angus, Senior Research Fellow who led the University of Sheffield study, said: “Even in our best-case scenario, where drinking behaviour returns to pre-pandemic levels in 2022, we estimate an additional 42,677 alcohol-attributable hospital admissions and 1,830 deaths over 20 years.
“These figures highlight that the pandemic’s impact on our drinking behaviour is likely to cast a long shadow on our health and paint a worrying picture at a time when NHS services are already under huge pressure due to treatment backlogs.”
The authors warn that as the reports only provide a snapshot of a small number of the 200 alcohol-related diseases, the actual impact is likely to be far greater.
The researchers also pointed out that the impacts are not evenly distributed across the population. Heavier drinkers and those living in the most deprived areas – who already suffer the highest rates of alcohol harm – are expected to be disproportionately affected.
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